The price of the dollar: what reached its highest value in 6 months? | exchange rate | Economie

The North American currency recorded its maximum value in six months – on January 6 it closed at S / 3.97 -.

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Externally, investors have been watching the state of the US economy, in the face of a possible interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, says Alberto Arespi. General Manager of Kallpa SAB. This final rally will be influenced by US inflation data to be published on WednesdayAdded Allisson Pérez, forex trader at Renta4 SAB. This has stimulated investors to turn to dollar.

“What the market is assessing is that it will grow less or if there is a recession, because the Fed will raise interest rates. Nobody knows if a higher interest rate will lead to slower economic growth or a recession.”Arispe announced.

Another factor is the decline in commodity prices, as is the case for copper, he added. At the local level, political conflicts and government influence, to a lesser degree, said Rextie co-founder Matthias Macel.

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Similarly, Maciel pointed out that The rise of the dollar is also driven by international influences such as the energy crisis in Europe.

region

Compared to the depreciation of sol -of 1.32% -, The Colombian peso recorded the largest exchange-day drop in the regionReuters said, down 3.58% and the Chilean peso fell 2.05%.

Both currencies reached historical records of 4578.88 Colombian pesos each dollar and 997.50 Chilean pesos per dollar.

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Along these lines, Arespi and Louis Valin, Head of Macroeconomics at Intelligo Sap, noted that these two countries, in addition to international factors, were affected by their respective political processes. The Chile case revolves around the new constitution and the final version of its text, delivered last week; They made it clear that there are still expectations in Colombia about the administration of leftist President Gustavo Petro.

Added to this is the drop in commodity prices. Latin American currencies, and South American currencies more than anything else, benefited at the beginning of the year from higher prices for base metals and oil, in the case of Colombia. What is beginning to emerge, as a sign of the recession that could come, is the drop in the price of copper.”Valen said.

Maciel adds that in the case of Peru Seoul has seen a smaller drop against these other currencies, due to the macroeconomic strength that remains, despite the current political situation. financial discipline; The country’s trade surplus for years; Remittances arrive in the country.

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“direction exchange rate In Peru in 2022, it was better than in many countries of the region”Maciel said.

prediction

Specialists point out that the US economy is being watched in the face of recession or economic slowdown. As Maciel points out, there is a “journey to quality” (safe haven assets are acquired and riskier assets are sold) by investors towards dollar.

In this context, Maciel argued that the scenario in which dollar Reach S/4 this week. For his part, Valin noted that this can be illustrated by the inflation figure in the US.

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euro

In line with the promotion dollar As a haven asset, Valen noted that the North American currency has reached parity in value with the Euro.

“[Es] Due to the fact that dollar It strengthens and hits other currencies, thus depreciating the euro. In addition, the depreciation of the euro is also explained by its exposure to conflict [bélico entre Rusia y Ucrania]This weakens their prospects.

He added that this parity could affect those with euro debt.

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