Who is the most likely candidate to win the elections in Colombia? Rodolfo or Pietro? This is what the polls say

(CNN Spanish) – The countdown to the second round of Colombia’s presidential election continues and a week before the determination is made, on Sunday the 19th Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez took advantage of each other, with very few percentage points in intent to vote. .

After the first round that limited the choices from six candidates to just two and a week before the second round, two polls, Guarumo-EcoAnalítica and GAD3, gave Hernandez little advantage over Petro. But other poll organizers, such as YanHass pollsters and Ponderadora de polls de la Silla Vacía, gave Petro a smaller advantage over Hernandez. The key there is the margin of error, as well as the blank rating.

This is what the polls say.

GAD3 scan

The Spanish poll started for the first time with the so-called “Presidential Tracking” as it conducted this poll for the so-called Great Media Alliance made up of RCN Radio, Noticias RCN, La Fm and La República newspaper, among other media.

Accordingly, the intention to vote until June 10 is as follows:

Rodolfo Hernandez – 46.8% (In the previous measurement after the first round it was 52.3%)
Gustavo Petro – 48.1% (In the previous measurement after the first round it was 45.1%).

The rate of empty voting in this poll is 5.1% and the margin of error is + 1.4%.

data sheet: 4,836 online interviews with mobile phone users between May 30 and June 9, 2022.
date of publication: June 10, 2022

Guarumo and EcoAnalytics

The poll conducted for El Tiempo newspaper gives the technical tie between Petro and Hernández, as follows:

Rodolfo Hernandez – 48.2% of the intent to vote.
Gustavo Petro- 46.5% of the intent to vote.

Error range: 2.5%.

data sheet: The Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS survey was conducted between June 6-9 and included 2029 interviews.

date of publication: June 11, 2022.

janhas

In this poll contracted by the RCN media chain, it was as follows:

Gustavo Petro- four five percent
Rodolfo Hernandez – 35%
Blank Vote – 13%
NS/NR – 7%

data sheet: 1234 face-to-face interviews in 60 municipalities between 5 and 10 June. Error range: 3.2%.
date of publication: June 11, 2022.

A reference from empty chair surveys

La Silla Vacía’s poll weight gives the technical tie between Hernández and Petro. Using the polling stop sign as a basis, it ranks the polling turn from 0 to 10 according to its methodology and ability to approximate the election results.

According to likely polls, the intention to vote until June 12 is as follows:

Rodolfo Hernandez – 46.5% Intent to vote
Gustavo Petro by 47.2% in the intent to vote.
Blank Rating: 5.4%
Does not know and does not answer: 0.9%.

National Consulting Center

A poll conducted by the National Consulting Center for Colombian Media CM & showed a technical link in voting intentions between presidential candidates Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez, who went into the second round.

Rodolfo Hernandez – 41% Intent to vote
Gustavo Petro with 39% in the intent to vote.
Blank Vote: 5%
Does not know and does not answer: 14%.

1% of those surveyed would not vote for any of these outcomes, depending on the results.

data sheet: 1,200 telephone interviews in homes in 43 municipalities in Colombia between May 30 and 31.
Error range: 2.8% and 95% confidence.
date of publication: June 1, 2022.

Petro and Hernandez under the magnifying glass of complaints and accusations 2:49

According to this latest poll, if electoral patterns are followed on Sunday, Hernandez will be stronger than Petro in regions such as the Coffee Region and Antioquia, (54% vs. 26%); Central-East (51% vs 23%) and Central-South (46% vs 34%).

On the other hand, Petro will have an advantage over Hernandez in Bogota (49% vs. 39%); in the Caribbean (48% vs. 33%) and in the Colombian Pacific (57% vs. 23%).

In the survey’s demographic data, upper-class residents would vote for Rodolfo Hernandez more than Gustavo Petro (52% versus 40%), while middle-class residents would prefer Petro. Among the lower-tier respondents there is a technical link: 40% Hernandez vs. 39% Petro).

The leftist candidate led in the first round with more than 8.5 million votes, or 40.32%. Hernandez, who calls himself an “outsider” and has gained traction in the final weeks before the election, received 5.9 million votes, 28.15%, beating well-known candidates such as Federico Gutierrez and Sergio Fajardo.

Meet the candidates:

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