Who is the most likely candidate to win the elections in Colombia? Rodolfo or Pietro? This is what the polls say

(CNN Spanish) – The countdown to the second round of Colombia’s presidential election continues, and with nearly two weeks before the deadline, Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez have taken advantage of each other, with just a few percentage points in vote intent.

A week into the first round that limited the choices from six candidates to just two, two polls (Massive Caller and GAD3) gave Rodolfo Hernandez a very narrow advantage over Gustavo Petro. But other pollsters, such as the National Consulting Center, Guarumo and YanHass, put Petro with a very small advantage over Hernandez. The key there is the margin of error, as well as the blank rating.

This is what the polls say.

Massive Caller Scan

Mexico’s Massive Caller surveyed 1,000 people by phone on June 1, 2022, three days after the first round, and the results say:

Rodolfo Hernandez – 55.4% of voting intent.
Gustavo Petro – 44.6% of voting intent.

The poll’s margin of error was 3.4, so Hernandez’s advantage over Petro can fluctuate.

GAD3 scan

The Spanish opinion poll started for the first time with the so-called “Presidential Tracking” where this poll was conducted by the so-called Great Media Alliance made up of the local media RCN Radio, Noticias RCN, La Fm and La República newspaper, among other media.

Accordingly, the intention to vote until June 6 is as follows:

Rodolfo Hernandez by 52.3% (In the previous measurement after the first lap it was 52.5%)
Gustavo Petro – 45.1% (In the previous measurement after the first round it was 44.5%.)

The blank vote in this poll is 2.6%.

data sheet: 1,755 surveys were conducted between May 30 and June 1, 2022.
date of publication: June 2, 2022

Guarumo and EcoAnalytics

The poll conducted for El Tiempo newspaper gives the technical tie between Petro and Hernández, as follows:

Rodolfo Hernandez – 46.1% of voting intent.
Gustavo Petro- 43.3% of voting intention.

Error range: 2.5%.

data sheet: The Guarumo SAS Survey and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS survey were conducted between 1 and 4 June. The poll included 1958 citizens.

date of publication: June 5, 2022.


In this poll contracted by the media chain RCN, it was as follows:

Gustavo Petro- 42%
Rodolfo Hernandez – 41%
blank vote – 13%
NS/NR – 5%

data sheet: 1,234 face-to-face surveys were conducted in 60 municipalities of the country between May 30 and June 3, 2022. Error range: 3.2%.
date of publication: June 5, 2022.

National Consulting Center

A poll conducted by the National Consulting Center for Colombian Media CM & Technical showed a tie in intent to vote between presidential candidates Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez, who went into the second round on Sunday.

Rodolfo Hernandez – 41% Intent to vote
Gustavo Petro with 39% in the intent to vote.
Blank Vote: 5%
Does not know and does not answer: 14%.

1% of those surveyed would not vote for any of these outcomes, depending on the results.

data sheet: 1,200 surveys in 43 municipalities of Colombia between May 30 and 31, 2022.
Error range: 2.8% and 95% confidence.
date of publication: June 1, 2022.

Petro and Hernandez under the magnifying glass of complaints and accusations 2:49

According to this latest poll, if Sunday’s electoral patterns are followed, Hernandez is stronger than Petro in regions such as the Coffee Region and Antioquia (54% vs. 26%); Central-East (51% vs 23%) and Central-South (46% vs 34%).

On the other hand, Pietro has an advantage over Hernandez in Bogotá (49% vs. 39%); in the Caribbean (48% vs. 33%) and in the Colombian Pacific (57% vs. 23%).

In the survey’s demographic data, upper-class residents would vote for Rodolfo Hernandez more than Gustavo Petro (52% versus 40%), while middle-class residents would prefer Petro. Among the lower-tier respondents there is a technical link: 40% Hernandez vs. 39% Petro).

Left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro won the majority of votes in the first round with just over 8.5 million in his favour. Hernandez, who calls himself an “outsider” and has gained traction in the final weeks before the election, received 5.9 million votes, beating well-known candidates such as Federico Gutierrez and Sergio Fajardo.

Leave a Comment