What is at stake in the June 5 elections in Mexico

(CNN Spanish) – Six Mexican states will go to the polls on Sunday. There will be elections, especially for the governor, in the entities that are fundamental to the current political landscape in the country. This election is crucial as there will be a lot at stake as it is a precursor to the 2024 presidential election.

11.7 million voters will vote to elect a governor in Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, Aguascalientes and Durango.

Elections that, although each state has its own characteristics, will be crucial in determining the direction of the country, explained Carlos Ugalde, general manager of Integralia Consultores in an interview with CNN.

“Quintana Roo for being the most important tourist entity in the country; Oaxaca for being an entity with great governance is a historical risk. Durango and Tamaulipas because they both have very high levels of organized crime; Aguascalientes because it is one of the most important development cradles in the country, it is an economy that grows at 9% annually and Hidalgo An entity there was no rotation at all.”

The National Electoral Institute, the independent body responsible for elections, will install 21,040 polling booths in the six entities.

In addition, the National Statistics Institute reports that just over 10,000 Mexicans abroad will be able to vote by mail for elections in Aguascalientes, Durango, Oaxaca and Tamaulipas.

Opinion polls and campaign closings suggest Morena’s party, led by incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, may be the winner. Luis Carlos Ugalde, former president of the Federal Electoral Institute from 2003 to 2007, explains that competition can be peaceful with a high participation of voters.

“A well-organized electoral process by the National Electoral Institute; the second, the civic and systemic participation of the people; three, in three entities, a resounding and definitive victory for Morena, that of Oaxaca, Quintana Roo and Hidalgo; one that will deliver a landslide victory for PAN, that of Aguascalientes, two entities that will be very competitive , namely Durango and Tamaulipas”.

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For political analysts consulted by CNN, such as Reforma’s Lorena Becerra, the election will not leave a good result for the coalition of PAN-PRI-PRD parties that have come together to be a counterweight to Morena who, with all the voting, is like the one that will happen on Sunday Next, it is gaining more strength.

This election is a precursor to the presidential election of 2024 in which Morena will come to rule a large part of the country, in fact, since the June 6, 2021 elections, she is already ruling 18 out of 32 states.

Ogalde describes Morena’s takeover of the PRI’s dominant position: “What we will see is an expansion of Morena’s regional power in this election. Morena will win at least three or four or in one of those up to five, between three and five entities, in such a way that her regional base of governors will expand This gives Morena more strength to be able to win the presidency in 2024.”

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And despite the PRI’s best efforts, to maintain what little power is left, given that it rules only Coahuila and the State of Mexico, experts like Ugalde predict it could become the biggest loser on Sunday’s election, as Ugalde predicted Miss Oaxaca and Hidalgo .

“Of the two entities that the PRI competes in this year, it is likely that both will lose and in this sense it will be interpreted as a defeat.”

For Arturo Argente Villarreal, professor and researcher at the Tec de Monterrey School of Social Sciences and Government, Morena mobilizes significant political capital.

“We are talking about the political structure that will dominate in each entity for the 2024 presidential election … as it will have complete control over the budget and government oversight so that we can influence and influence the 2024 elections where they will have a new president.”

Argent Villarreal believes that despite the mistakes made by the government of President Lopez Obrador, such as poor results in the fight against insecurity and the economy, Morena is progressing like a tsunami across the country due to the lack of response from the opposition.

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“President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has changed the rules of the game with regard to the subject of politics through this morning conference, and has succeeded in distorting the opposition and removing it from its weight, and the opposition continues to drag those sequels and sins of the past.”

In the records of the National Institute of Statistics, there are 27 contenders for the position of governor. 13 of them are women and 14 are men, the youngest candidates are 37 years old and the oldest is 68 years old.

It will be at the end of the day, when vote counting will begin through each entity’s preliminary results programs.

CNN en Español’s Pelin Zapata contributed to this report.

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