(CNN Spanish) – Two weeks before the final elections, on June 19, two candidates are vying for millions of votes to reach the Colombian presidency for the 2022-2026 term. Gustavo Petro, who received about 8.5 million votes, and Rodolfo Hernandez, who received 5.9 million, are seeking to capture the undecided and the votes of the other candidates to win the second round.
Where will the candidates look for the votes needed to win them on June 19?
First, what the polls say
A poll by the National Consulting Center CM& that was released two days after the first round could give some indication of where they could each get the votes.
Primarily, the survey indicates that Hernandez is stronger than Petro in regions such as the Coffee Region and Antioquia (54% vs. 26); Central-East (51% vs 23%) and Central-South (46% vs 34%). In fact, these were the places where Hernandez achieved the majority of votes in the first round.
On the other hand, Pietro has an advantage over Hernandez in Bogotá (49% vs. 39%); in the Caribbean (48% vs. 33%) and in the Colombian Pacific (57% vs. 23%). The Historic Charter candidate also won the majority of votes in these areas, so you can search for votes there.
In second place, Hernandez has more intention to vote than Petro in the upper classes (52% vs. 40%). Both have a technical relationship in the middle class (Hernandez 39% and Petro 41) and between the lower classes (Hernandez 40% and Petro 39%).
With age, younger voters tend more toward Petro, while with age, there is a greater tendency toward Hernandez, according to a survey by the National Consulting Center.
From 18 to 25 years: Petro 54% – Hernandez 26%.
From 26 to 40 years: Petro 45% – Hernandez 37%.
41 to 55 years old: Hernandez 46% – Petro 34%
Over 56 years old: Hernandez 53% – Petro 26%.
Pietro’s “roof” and Hernandez’s “space”
Analysts consulted by CNN tried to glimpse how the candidates could grow in support.
Journalist and political analyst Ricardo Galán noted that Petro reached the 8.5 million vote cap he received on Sunday and that this would be disadvantageous for Hernandez, who is underappreciated and could benefit from this on June 19.
“He has a lot of room,” Galan told CNN, referring to Hernandez’s electoral potential.
“He wasn’t known in Colombia until two months ago,” Galan continued, talking about Hernandez. “He has recognition in only 70% of the population compared to 96% of Gustavo Petro. He has every chance of continuing to grow. The country already knows him today. And most importantly: people who do not agree with Gustavo Petro knows this,” the analyst told CNN Rodolfo. Hernandez can beat Petro and that will be important on June 19.”
Here are some figures to analyze Petro’s electoral ceiling:
Four years earlier, in the first round, Pietro received 4.8 million votes against Evan Duque, who received 7.6 million votes. In the second round of 2018, Pietro received 8 million votes. Four years later, in 2022, he managed to increase about 500,000 votes in the first round.
However, analyst Leon Valencia believes Petro still has plenty of room for growth in terms of voters in the next two weeks.
“There’s a very broad anti-Labour vote, that’s right,” Valencia told CNN. “But it is also a fact that Pietro needs 10 points to win and Rodolfo Hernandez 22.”
According to Valencia, 23% of the votes received by candidate Vico Gutierrez (who came in third with five million votes) should go entirely to Hernandez, but “that never happens in political logic,” says Valencia.
Valencia added, noting that “some people from Fico abstain from voting and will certainly play Petro to neutralize this vote. Others will go to Petro because there are also political sectors that support Fico that will hardly support Rodolfo Hernandez.” Political rivalries of some right-wing parties supported Fico, which did not align with Hernandez.
But Galán goes against the electoral mathematics of Valencia and believes that if the votes of Vico Gutierrez (23%) and Sergio Fajardo (4%) go to Hernandez, “Rodolfo is the undisputed winner,” he told CNN.
At the moment, Rodolfo Hernandez has the support of several key figures on the right, such as former candidate Federico Gutierrez. Some members of Congress are from the Democratic Center and those sectors are likely to vote with this candidate who has said publicly that he does not accept the support of “politicians” or parties or political machines, but rather the votes of people who want to support him regardless of his political affiliations. Former candidate Sergio Fajardo, accompanied by former candidates from the Centro Esperanza coalition, met with Hernandez and made some programmatic points for possible support, although this did not materialize.
On the other hand, Petro’s campaign has already had significant support, as did former centrist candidate Alejandro Gaviria, as well as Luis Gilberto Murillo, former vice-presidential candidate for Sergio Fajardo. Some sections of the Alianza Verde and neoliberal (centre) party that had previously supported Fajardo also joined. This Friday officially endorsed it Antanas Mockus, former presidential candidate and former mayor of Bogota.
The question that remains is whether in the context of this change, in which politicians and traditional parties have been punished, will a politician’s popular support for one of these campaigns increase or decrease.
The last word is 39 million Colombians on June 19.
Meet the candidates: