Analysis | How is Uribism after the first presidential run?

(CNN Spanish) – Colombians told the traditional political class enough in the first round of the 2022 presidential election, according to analysts consulted by CNN. For many, this election was a referendum against politics, Uribismo and President Iván Duque himself, who reached the end of his term with a low popularity (27.5%), according to the latest measurements of the Invamer poll of Noticias Caracol, Blu Radio and El Espectador.

“The biggest loser in Sunday’s election was Uribe,” political analyst Leon Valencia, director of the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation, told CNN. According to Valencia, the country voted in Sunday’s elections against continuity.

Uribismo has been present in Colombian politics in the past twenty years, since the first government of former President Alvaro Uribe, between 2002 and 2006, and then between 2006 and 2010. This leader has been considered one of the most important political figures in Colombia. the past two decades.

However, its effect appears to be about to expire.

“It’s a big disagreement with (President Ivan) Duque, a big disagreement with the government party, the Democratic Centre. So he is the biggest loser,” Valencia added.

Valencia says the first round shows anger and exhaustion 1:54

Colombia’s first round of presidential elections left a political panorama that might not have been expected a few months ago: In Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez, Colombians saw two options away from traditional parties, from former presidents still part of the political debates, and a four-year government that eroded The image of not only Uribismo, but also the image of Uribe himself.

“Uribe was Colombia’s largest voter until 2018,” political analyst Rafael Nieto Loiza told CNN.

Uribe was elected in the first round with 53% of the vote in 2002; During his tenure, the constitution was amended (not without controversy) to allow for re-election, and in 2010 he introduced his candidate, Juan Manuel Santos, under the banner of his government. Santos was elected that year and although Uribismo was an opponent in Santos’ second term (2014-2018), Uribe’s candidate in 2018, Ivan Duque, was elected president. The former president was so influential at the time that it was common to hear right-wing voters say they would vote “whom Uribe says,” a phrase that became part of media coverage of campaigns in 2018 and 2022, which have been used on political billboards and have also been mentioned as part of voting intent surveys prior to the start of the current campaign.

“Nothing to discuss. They beat us.” Ernesto Macías wrote on TwitterSenator for the ruling Democratic Center – the party founded by Uribe – after the first round elections.

But as for Fidel Cano, the newspaper’s director viewerwhat left the elections is not about a complete defeat of Oribismo or his exclusion from the political game, but rather the boredom of the former president’s personality over the past two decades.

“I think Oribismo is still playing,” Cano told CNN reporter Carmen Aristigui. “What’s happening is that Alvaro Uribe’s character is no longer attractive and there’s a kind of tiredness that he’s run the country and the elections for the past 20 years.”

A stain from an Oribe?

Under Uribe’s influence, Congress has also been elected with a majority of Uribe, or at least a right-wing majority, for years. Reality changed on March 13, 2022 when voters favored a majority of members of Congress from the left and the center left.

“He’s been a great voter in 20 years,” Neto said. “No longer.”

“This is a reality and has been proven in the past four years in the elections for governors and mayors in this government, and in the parliamentary elections now (2022). Undoubtedly, he will not be the party’s largest voter. The presidential elections are the 2022 elections.” According to this analyst, the former president’s image was eroded in front of his base due to the efforts of Santos and Duque: “This largely explains the erosion of President Uribe’s popularity.”

Uribe himself recently admitted that any candidate who approaches him “there say ‘uribista’ and put a disgrace on him”.

Uribe responds to the judge who denied dismissing the case against him 3:23

The Democratic Center, which led Duque to the presidency, did not field a government candidate, as Oscar Evan Zuluaga, who would have been Uribismo’s bet, rejected his nomination and publicly supported Federico Gutierrez. Other politicians from the Democratic Center supported Fico, but he distanced himself from this support and on several occasions denied that he was a Uribe candidate.

“Uribe that dominated the political scene, in this political moment, was the cause of Fico Gutierrez’s campaign deteriorating to the point where no one wanted President Duque or ex-President Uribe to be his campaign reference,” political analyst Vicente Torrijos told CNN.

According to Valencia, facts known in recent years about Uribe or his governments – such as false positives, “chuzadas” or other cases being investigated with the former president – actually make Colombians want to stand out from this political system.

“They reveal it. When the rug of the country is lifted and there is a lot of blood under it, it negatively affects Uribe’s government, Uribe himself and the sectors that accompanied him. These are things that are there in the conscience of the country,” says Valencia.

Did the yeribe convert?

After the defeat they suffered in the first round, in which Oribismo did not field a candidate and those who supported him were disqualified from the second round, many say the votes from this sector will go to Rodolfo Hernandez, the right-wing populist candidate. .

“I think behind Hernandez he hides a good percentage of the vote, easily 20-30% of the vote (for Rodolfo Hernandez) is votes from Oribestas who decided that Hernandez was a better option to stop Petro than the candidate was. From Uribismo, Federico Gutiérrez,” Victor M. Uribe-Urán, professor of history and law at Florida International University, told CNN.

“I think there are many underrated Uribe supporters,” Uribe-Uran said of Hernandez’s candidacy. They (Uribista) saw that the analyzes indicated that if the winning candidate had been an Uribista candidate, that candidate would have lost in the second round.

“So I think Hernandez’s choice represents, on the one hand, a call for change, but on the other, a fear that has been very traditional in Colombia, of the rise of the left,” said Uribe-Uran.

While there are many differences between this political sector and Hernández, they have many things in common,” Adam Isaacson, director of the NGO WOLA, told CNN when explaining Uribismo’s potential support for Hernández’s candidacy.

“Rodolfo Hernández is not Alvaro Uribe’s choice, and the uribistas are now putting their support behind Hernández. Not that there is an old relationship. There is a lot of coincidence in some political situations and Hernández, especially those that have to do with public safety, I imagine, trade and how the economic model ‘ said Isaacson.

But Isaacson insists that Hernandez “is not a creature of Oribismo, although some say the man represents ‘Plan C’ to keep Oribismo in power.”

And in this desperation to maintain power, Uribismo went to find a way to stop Petro, this time supporting Hernández.

However, although Hernández said Uribe had always treated him well, he rejected public support from Oribismo and other traditional politicians, saying that he only obeyed the Colombian people. This Tuesday, Hernandez posted a A thread on Twitter with 20 variations, according to him, he has with Uribismo And the Duque government, such as its agreement to peace negotiations with guerrillas of the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the restoration of relations with Venezuela, the legalization of marijuana, respect for the right to abortion, and its rejection of hydraulic cracking. Or “hydraulic fracturing” for oil and gas production, as well as the use of glyphosate in agriculture.

A ‘punishment’ for traditional parties

Finally, not only was Uribismo defeated in this election. The traditional liberal and conservative parties, former presidents César Gaviria, and Andrés Pastrana (and Uribe of course), who backed candidate Gutierrez, are the other losers.

“It was part a vote for punishment and partly a vote for change,” political analyst Jorge Restrepo told Reuters.

“I am punishing the national government and the political parties and the former presidents who control those parties. The traditional political class. But on the other hand, it was a vote for change, again: the national government, a vote of discontent so that the position of the Colombians would change.”

As Valencia told CNN, the result of the first round shows interest in change, but also the population’s weariness and anger with the current government and its power tentacles.

“Fico’s association with President Duque’s government, which he has done so poorly, carries a lot of weight. There is fatigue and what people are also looking for is new things and they have found,” Valencia said.

These “new things,” he says, are the left that has never ruled Colombia, and two, the “external” candidate, whom many call the Colombian “Trump.”

Reelection, uribismo and scandals: what do Petro, Fico and Hernández say? 4:35

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